FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
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- NGN 3000
ABSTRACT
The study evaluated the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data spanning from 1981 to 2019. The specific objectives include: to ascertain the extent of relationship between oil revenue and economic growth in Nigeria; to determine the degree of relationship between non-oil revenue and economic growth in Nigeria; to evaluate the extent of relationship between capital expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria; to find out the extent of relationship between recurrent expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria; to ascertain the degree of relationship between domestic debt and economic growth in Nigeria; to investigate the extent of relationship between external debt and economic growth in Nigeria; and to investigate the degree of relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth in Nigeria. Relevant conceptual, empirical and theoretical literatures were reviewed. Endogenous growth theory was adopted for the study. The study adopted longitudinal research design. Capital expenditure, recurrent expenditure, oil revenue, non-oil revenue, domestic debt, external debt, and fiscal deficit were employed as the independent variables while real gross domestic product, a proxy for economic growth served as the dependent variables. Data were sourced on these variables from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2019. The statistical tools employed in analyzing the data include descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test and Error Correction Model (ECM). The result of the descriptive statistics indicates that all the variables were normally distributed. Augmented DickeyFuller (ADF) test statistics showed that all the variables used in this study were stationary at first difference. Johansen Cointegration test indicate that there is a long run relationship between the variables used in the study. The estimation result indicates that non-oil revenue, capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure had significant positive relationship with economic growth. Oil revenue was found to have insignificant positive relationship with economic growth in Nigeria while domestic debt, external debt and fiscal deficit were found to have negative relationship with economic growth within the period under review. The study therefore concludes that fiscal policy has significant relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommends amongst others that government should ensure the diversification of the nation’s economic base and be prudent public spending by concentrating its public expenditure on the productive sector of the economy in order to create more jobs to its citizenry. Effort should also be made to boost domestic revenue generation and execute fiscal transformations that reduce public debt and deficit financing to a sustainable level, while ensuring that borrowed funds are deployed to support growth through productive and self-liquidating investments in the principal sectors of the economy.
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